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Poker Hand Win Rates Against Tight Opponents

4 October 2009

Poker Hand Win Rates Against Tight Opponents

If you are playing Texas Holdem Poker, it is important to understand the difference between good starting hands that you should play, and the junk hands that you should fold.  One of the biggest differences between winning and losing poker players is their starting hand discipline.   How should you pick which starting hands to play?  A lot of that depends on your playing style, position, chip stack, etc. but it is all based on how often any given poker hand wins.  This link shows the poker hand win rates against any random hand, i.e. a blind vs. blind or a heads up situation.     The tables on this page show the poker hand win rates against fairly tight opponents, ones that are being at least somewhat picky about their starting hand selection.


How Can You Tell How Tight Your Opponents Are?

If you are playing online poker, the easiest way is to use software like Poker Tracker.  Which will keep track of all your opponents stats for you.  The most important stack for tightness is how often your the other poker player voluntarily puts in money preflop, i.e. he calls or raises preflop if he isn’t in the big blind, or if he is in the big blind he calls a raise preflop.  Any one who plays more than 25% of the non-blind hands is playing loose or extremely loose.  Anyone playing less than 25% of the non-blind hands is anything between tight and a rock.

If you are playing a live poker game, at a casino or a home poker game, you can count how many hands a poker player plays each round to get an idea of how loose or tight they are.


Reading the Table

The chart shows how likely a given hand is to win in each scenario.  The upper right half of the chart shows the win rates for suited cards, and the lower left half of the chart shows the win rates for unsuited cards.  Pairs are down the diagonal.  Each of these charts show the win rates against a single opponent.


Win Rates Against A Fairly Tight Opponent – 25% of the starting hands played

This chart shows the win rates of a hand against an opponent who is being somewhat selective in his starting hands, and only playing 25% of them.  Some of the hands in the top 25% are a little bit weak, but there is nothing in there that is total junk.   (Note, the top 25% of hands is calculated as a percentage of times that hand is dealt.  Any given pocket pair gets dealt .452% of the time, any off-suit combination gets dealt .905% of the time, and any suited combination gets dealt .302% of the time)

 

	Hand Win Percentages Against Top 25% of Hands
	Against Any Pair, Any Suited Ace, Any 2 Broadway Cards, AKo-A6o, 10-9s, 98s, 87s
	A	K	Q	J	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2
A	0.847	0.634	0.608	0.583	0.560	0.510	0.487	0.468	0.452	0.453	0.447	0.439	0.433
K	0.619	0.757	0.500	0.477	0.455	0.423	0.411	0.407	0.398	0.399	0.392	0.389	0.384
Q	0.587	0.471	0.716	0.449	0.430	0.408	0.392	0.377	0.375	0.373	0.368	0.362	0.355
J	0.561	0.447	0.420	0.672	0.411	0.395	0.382	0.370	0.358	0.357	0.356	0.349	0.339
10	0.534	0.426	0.395	0.383	0.626	0.398	0.386	0.368	0.357	0.345	0.346	0.339	0.330
9	0.483	0.391	0.373	0.365	0.367	0.588	0.394	0.379	0.366	0.356	0.341	0.340	0.335
8	0.459	0.375	0.358	0.351	0.351	0.362	0.561	0.384	0.371	0.361	0.345	0.330	0.325
7	0.436	0.372	0.343	0.336	0.336	0.347	0.350	0.536	0.376	0.364	0.353	0.333	0.319
6	0.419	0.368	0.341	0.320	0.319	0.331	0.337	0.343	0.512	0.375	0.359	0.343	0.323
5	0.420	0.365	0.340	0.322	0.311	0.320	0.326	0.332	0.340	0.492	0.373	0.355	0.339
4	0.412	0.359	0.334	0.316	0.305	0.303	0.307	0.315	0.323	0.335	0.474	0.348	0.331
3	0.408	0.353	0.327	0.310	0.299	0.300	0.291	0.299	0.305	0.319	0.313	0.453	0.326
2	0.401	0.347	0.319	0.304	0.293	0.294	0.288	0.280	0.288	0.301	0.294	0.288	0.435

 

Win Rates Against Tight Aggressive Opponents – 14% of the Starting Hands Played

Someone only playing 14% of their starting hands is waiting for good hands to play.  They are only playing 1 hand per orbit when they aren’t in the blinds.   Since they are playing so tightly, your win rate against them will drop significantly.  Hands like weak aces lose a lot of value, because of the 14% of hands that your opponent is playing, there are so many that dominate a weak ace.   Strong hands such as the Ace-King suited still retain a lot of value and win more than 60% of the time.

 

	Hand Win Percentages Against Top 14% of Hands
	Against AA-66, AKs-A7s, KQs-K10s, QJs, AKo-A10o, KQo, KJo, QJo
	A	K	Q	J	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2
A	0.847	0.612	0.566	0.526	0.471	0.436	0.423	0.412	0.406	0.410	0.412	0.405	0.404
K	0.599	0.747	0.458	0.420	0.392	0.376	0.365	0.359	0.354	0.353	0.348	0.349	0.348
Q	0.542	0.431	0.676	0.375	0.368	0.359	0.341	0.330	0.324	0.325	0.325	0.319	0.313
J	0.498	0.385	0.344	0.610	0.359	0.352	0.340	0.325	0.315	0.312	0.314	0.313	0.303
10	0.440	0.357	0.326	0.328	0.554	0.365	0.354	0.334	0.324	0.314	0.316	0.313	0.309
9	0.403	0.341	0.319	0.320	0.331	0.521	0.362	0.349	0.340	0.327	0.314	0.315	0.315
8	0.389	0.325	0.306	0.303	0.317	0.329	0.494	0.352	0.343	0.334	0.320	0.311	0.305
7	0.375	0.320	0.290	0.289	0.300	0.314	0.321	0.462	0.345	0.338	0.326	0.308	0.299
6	0.369	0.320	0.292	0.276	0.288	0.301	0.309	0.315	0.441	0.349	0.335	0.321	0.304
5	0.377	0.317	0.291	0.278	0.278	0.291	0.299	0.303	0.315	0.428	0.349	0.335	0.320
4	0.375	0.315	0.288	0.272	0.276	0.276	0.282	0.291	0.298	0.309	0.422	0.330	0.317
3	0.372	0.312	0.283	0.272	0.272	0.277	0.268	0.277	0.283	0.298	0.296	0.415	0.312
2	0.370	0.310	0.279	0.267	0.269	0.274	0.269	0.261	0.269	0.282	0.280	0.275	0.412

 

Win Rates Against Total Rocks – 6% of the Starting Hands Played

You won’t often see a player play poker this tight.  6% of the starting hands played means they only play 1 hand out of every 2 orbits at a  full table.  When this player is in a hand, they have a powerhouse.  Don’t give this rock any action unless you have a premium holding.

	Hand Win Percentages Against Top 6.2% of Hands
	Against AA-88, AKs-A10s, KQs, AKo, AQo
	A	K	Q	J	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2
A	0.839	0.529	0.438	0.387	0.350	0.333	0.322	0.322	0.324	0.330	0.332	0.320	0.323
K	0.513	0.703	0.358	0.353	0.352	0.330	0.313	0.313	0.308	0.315	0.304	0.305	0.300
Q	0.407	0.325	0.610	0.343	0.343	0.318	0.297	0.293	0.292	0.292	0.286	0.287	0.282
J	0.348	0.319	0.312	0.538	0.348	0.330	0.315	0.301	0.293	0.293	0.295	0.297	0.286
10	0.317	0.311	0.301	0.313	0.480	0.330	0.314	0.303	0.291	0.285	0.284	0.285	0.275
9	0.291	0.291	0.281	0.296	0.296	0.436	0.314	0.309	0.296	0.289	0.273	0.274	0.278
8	0.279	0.272	0.264	0.277	0.276	0.278	0.384	0.306	0.302	0.283	0.280	0.263	0.261
7	0.279	0.272	0.254	0.267	0.264	0.272	0.272	0.366	0.303	0.297	0.286	0.264	0.256
6	0.279	0.277	0.257	0.259	0.258	0.262	0.264	0.275	0.370	0.315	0.294	0.287	0.266
5	0.292	0.272	0.255	0.260	0.245	0.250	0.254	0.263	0.279	0.367	0.320	0.299	0.284
4	0.287	0.272	0.252	0.254	0.244	0.237	0.239	0.249	0.263	0.273	0.362	0.293	0.281
3	0.285	0.269	0.247	0.252	0.241	0.237	0.221	0.239	0.247	0.262	0.261	0.351	0.275
2	0.281	0.263	0.242	0.250	0.238	0.232	0.225	0.218	0.231	0.246	0.244	0.238	0.346

 

 

Win Rates Against The Top 6 Hands - 2.5% of Starting Hands Played

The top 6 hands are AA-10,10 and Ace-King suited.  There is no good hand to play against this range, unless you have a top 6 hand yourself.  Luckily, someone who is playing this incredibly tight is only in a hand once every 4 rounds.  If you are paying any kind of attention what-so-ever, you should realize that they are the rockiest of rocks, and opt to fold any time they are in a hand.

	Hand Win Percentages Against Top 2.5% Of Hands
	Against AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 10-10, AKs
	A	K	Q	J	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2
A	0.808	0.405	0.365	0.328	0.291	0.298	0.304	0.292	0.299	0.304	0.314	0.298	0.305
K	0.379	0.651	0.326	0.291	0.287	0.269	0.265	0.260	0.254	0.269	0.257	0.257	0.252
Q	0.323	0.296	0.505	0.294	0.263	0.259	0.242	0.243	0.249	0.243	0.237	0.238	0.224
J	0.295	0.258	0.250	0.376	0.234	0.243	0.237	0.230	0.205	0.206	0.217	0.221	0.211
10	0.267	0.235	0.217	0.201	0.240	0.228	0.218	0.218	0.199	0.187	0.186	0.188	0.179
9	0.256	0.231	0.214	0.201	0.183	0.227	0.231	0.226	0.210	0.206	0.184	0.188	0.186
8	0.255	0.221	0.212	0.196	0.181	0.189	0.227	0.235	0.222	0.209	0.205	0.190	0.179
7	0.257	0.218	0.198	0.188	0.169	0.184	0.203	0.235	0.226	0.232	0.218	0.192	0.181
6	0.256	0.223	0.204	0.177	0.163	0.174	0.186	0.207	0.233	0.245	0.220	0.212	0.186
5	0.268	0.221	0.205	0.179	0.146	0.162	0.179	0.192	0.206	0.228	0.250	0.226	0.218
4	0.270	0.223	0.201	0.176	0.144	0.143	0.161	0.176	0.189	0.204	0.229	0.223	0.206
3	0.265	0.219	0.195	0.168	0.145	0.145	0.143	0.162	0.173	0.187	0.189	0.218	0.204
2	0.263	0.207	0.192	0.162	0.137	0.141	0.147	0.144	0.156	0.170	0.166	0.159	0.218

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